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Recently, aluminum prices continue to show a high and strong adjustment trend
.
As of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 14405, up 40, or 0.
28%; Shanghai aluminum fluctuated higher during the week, and the main force broke through the 14500 mark again, but due to the tension between China and the United States, it fell
slightly at the end of the day.
On the supply side, high profits stimulated the resumption of production, several enterprises resumed production, and the expected supply pressure on the third quarter increased; On the cost side, alumina continues to increase cost support, but industry profits still maintain a high level
.
In terms of premium discount, domestic spot maintained a large premium, and Lun Aluminum maintained a discount of more than 30 US dollars; In terms of stocks, LME stocks fell slightly to 1.
648 million tons, an increase of 19,700 tons to 233,300 tons in the previous period, and the social bank increased by 1,000 tons to 698,000 tons
.
From the macro atmosphere, the stimulus policies in Europe and the United States have improved market expectations, but there is greater uncertainty
in Sino-US relations.
The macro environment is that low-cost funds drive risk market performance
in anticipation of economic recovery.
As far as the supply and demand of aluminum itself, the signs of weakening the margin of supply and demand have been reflected, first, the supply side has gradually released production capacity under the stimulation of high profits, and second, the off-season has arrived, and the demand stage has weakened
.
It directly leads to the approaching inflection point of destocking, and the downstream fear of heights just needs to be purchased
.
However, low inventory has led to a limited supply of circulating goods in the market, although the supply pressure rose in the second half of the year, but the short-term supply and demand tight balance situation will not change, coupled with the market atmosphere and capital promotion, aluminum prices are expected to continue to maintain a strong pattern
.
From a fundamental point of view, the production capacity of aluminum enterprises under high profits has accelerated, and the signs of weakening the margin of supply and demand have gradually been reflected, but for now, low inventory has led to tight spot circulation, short-term supply and demand balance is still in place, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to remain strong; The main force of Shanghai aluminum can continue to pay attention to the range of 1.
44-14,600 range, the follow-up recommendation to pay close attention to the progress of the Sino-US situation, the operation can buy a small amount of bargains, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum or still based on shock adjustment, the overall fluctuation is not large
.
