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On the last trading day before the holiday, Shanghai aluminum rose for three consecutive days, and the late rise expanded, closing up 2.
05%.
At the macro level, the Fed interest rate meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chairman Powell said that he would not rule out raising interest rates at every FOMC meeting, the hawkish remarks weighed on market risk appetite, U.
S.
bonds and dollar indexes rose, risk assets fell, and colored sectors pulled back
.
But overall, this meeting is basically in line with market expectations, and risk appetite is expected to recover
in the short term with the release of risk aversion.
In terms of news, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has cooled down slightly, but the political risk has not been lifted, the market's concerns about the shortage of overseas aluminum supply still exist, coupled with overseas inventories in a relative position, aluminum prices remain high and volatile
.
In terms of fundamentals, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory accumulated slightly, but the current inventory level is still low, this week the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was flat 726,000 tons, Wuxi area contributed mainly to the warehouse, mainly because of the small arrival, close to the Spring Festival, downstream operating rate has declined, most processing enterprises have completed the reserve, consumption began to weaken marginally, but export orders are hot, it is expected that this year's Spring Festival accumulation range is weaker than last year
.
LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and the write-off warehouse receipt ratio steadily increased, and the tight supply pattern of electrolytic aluminum continued, and there was still strong support
in the face of aluminum prices.
On the supply side, following the resumption of production in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, the market rumors that Guangxi and Guizhou aluminum plants have also begun to resume production plans, the pace of resumption of production is steadily rising, and it is expected to gradually be reflected in the increment of the supply side, the cost side of the market rumors that Shandong alumina has reduced production due to environmental protection problems, and the price of alumina has risen, but the current aluminum price is at a high level and the price of electricity is relatively stable, the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still considerable, and the fundamentals of aluminum varieties tend to be loose
.
Overall, in the short term, under the influence of factors such as the hawkish remarks released by the Federal Reserve and the expansion of geopolitical risks, risk aversion has heated up, and the long profit-taking before the holiday has further suppressed the performance of aluminum prices, and aluminum prices have been adjusted in shock, but the basic face of aluminum still has strong support, and the upward trend of aluminum prices may not change
.
