Shanghai aluminum ushered in a brief rebound and prices continued to rise during the day

On the supply side, domestic domestic capacity and new production capacity are actively promoting the resumption of production plan, and it is expected that the daily production of domestic electrolytic aluminum in July will continue to increase
month-on-month.
This week's operating capacity was 41.
07 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons
from last week.
The general direction is expected that the daily production of domestic electrolytic aluminum in July will maintain an increase
month-on-month.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises continues to decline
.
Recently, the high temperature in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has not fallen, and the leading enterprises in the region have temporarily started work steadily, and the situation of taking high temperature holidays for workers in turn will not be ruled out in the future, which will have an impact
on the subsequent start of enterprises.
In industrial profiles, automotive lightweight and photovoltaic plates may continue to find some increments
.
The wave of real estate loan suspension is still worrying, according to the results of the central bank's second quarter questionnaire, the proportion of residents increasing spending on home purchases in the second quarter of this year is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016, and there is a long-term weakening trend
.

In terms of stocks, aluminum social stocks were 796,000 tons, -29,000 tons
from last week.
Aluminum inventories maintain the trend of destocking, and the release of downstream demand in the later period needs to pay attention to the expectation of the improvement of the epidemic and the stimulation
of enterprise stockpiling under low prices.

Overall: supply side: domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase
in July.
On the consumer side: the wave of real estate loan suspensions and the repeated epidemic have widened the gap between domestic economic growth and the target, and the urgency of stable domestic growth has increased
.
Overall, the increase in domestic production is large, the downstream demand for bargain replenishment is strong, and it is expected that next week's inventory will remain dematerialized, and aluminum prices may usher in a brief rebound, but it is difficult to continue to rebound momentum
.
In the medium and long term, the supply pressure is greater, under the epidemic and real estate control policies, demand expectations are pessimistic, and the aluminum price center is expected to move closer to the cost line
.