Shanghai aluminum upward resistance downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic

Market focus: (1) The 1-year LPR of the People's Bank of China reported 3.
85%, down 20 bp from the previous time; LPR over 5 years was reported at 4.
65%, down 10 bp
from the previous time.
(2) The output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in March was 2.
97 million tons, an increase of 2.
3% year-on-year; Total output from January to March was 8.
84 million tons, up 2.
7%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On April 20, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 12480-12520 yuan / ton, with an average price of 12500 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 350 yuan / ton
.
High-priced holders in the morning shipped very positively, due to the tight market circulation spot, spot premium rose, later holders shipments gradually converged, began to show wait-and-see, middlemen before the afternoon willingness to continue to show high
.
In addition, a large household is more active in purchasing today and plans to receive more than 10,000 tons
of goods.
The downstream replenished goods normally today, and received a little hesitation due to the high price of aluminum, but the overall is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 286344 tons, a daily decrease of 2220 tons, a continuous decline of 4 days; On April 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1259150 tons, down 2,325 tons
per day.
As of the week of April 17, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 485802 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,450 tons, a decline of 4 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract were 81542 lots, minus 2793 lots, short positions were 98076 lots, daily minus 2634 lots, net short positions were 16534 lots, daily increase of 159 lots, long and short were reduced, net space increased
.

On April 20, the upward movement of Shanghai's main force 2006 was blocked
.
In the early stage, aluminum prices were below the cost line for a long time, and the continuous loss state led to the continuous expansion of electrolytic aluminum plant production reductions, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, the recent continuous decline and expansion of Shanghai aluminum inventories, which strongly supported aluminum prices
.
However, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy continues, overseas orders have declined significantly, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic; In addition, the price of alumina fell to a low level, and the willingness of aluminum plants to purchase raw materials increased, which also reduced the production reduction expectations of aluminum plants, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the high-priced holders in the morning shipped very actively, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods before noon continued to be high, and a large household purchased more actively today, planning to receive more than 10,000 tons, and the downstream replenishment
was normal.
Technically, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum focuses on the resistance above 12500, and the mainstream position increases and reduces the short, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.