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Trade Service
Last week, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a trend of falling first and then rising; The average weekly settlement price of the 1904 contract in Shanghai Aluminum in the current month was 13,626 yuan, down about 0.
9% from last week's settlement price; The weekly chart fell 0.
33%.
Fitch lowered its aluminum price forecast for the next few years, mainly due to a reduced supply gap in the forecast market and a decline
in aluminum demand growth outside China.
Domestic aluminum demand is weakening in key areas, and aluminum prices lack support to the upside
.
Externally, European and American manufacturing data were weak, investors were worried that slowing economic growth weakened market demand, and aluminum prices fell; The resumption of Sino-US trade talks and the market maintained optimism, supported by the continued decline in Lun aluminum inventories.
The price trend of aluminum during the week maintained a trend
of first falling and then rising.
The market is mainly focused on the $2,000 support level
.
In terms of inventory, the trend of aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend during the week, and the latest inventory was reported 1129175 metric tons, reducing the inventory by 31,100 metric tons, a decrease of about 2.
7%; The total weekly aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 734,990 tons, down 6,767 tons, or about 0.
9%,
from last week.
Macro information: Domestically, the domestic economic situation is relatively stable on the whole, although facing some downward pressure, the endogenous driving force of economic growth continues to increase, and the quality and efficiency are further improved
.
Internationally, the Fed's No.
2 person stressed that the Fed's decision-making will remain patient, and No.
3 denied the risk of
a near-term recession.
Aluminum market dynamics
By 2030, India will need to produce or import 60 million tons of bauxite per year to meet its aluminum demand
.
2.
Fitch said it expects Chinese producers of semi-finished and finished aluminum to increase exports to maintain production and reduce the global supply gap
.
Looking ahead, worries about slowing global economic growth have intensified, Fitch has lowered its aluminum price forecast for the next few years, lack of demand support, and spot aluminum prices have insufficient upward momentum this week
.
In the second quarter, the market consumption is expected to be optimistic, but the Sino-US trade negotiations have not yielded results, the market will remain cautious and wait-and-see, and it is expected that the spot aluminum price trend next week will be strong and volatile
.