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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract under pressure and heavy setback, the performance is much weaker than other base metals, closing down to 11965 yuan / ton, down 3.
08% from Friday's closing price, the current Shanghai aluminum fell below the moving average group, short-term decline risk increased
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts narrowed slightly to 110 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Today's Ashi Lun aluminum extended its recent decline, weaker than other base metals, of which 3-month Lun aluminum fell 0.
41% to 1587 US dollars / ton, more than 7.
1% lower than the previous high of 1709 US dollars / ton, continue to effectively run below M60, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be wary of technical correction demand, the lower support to focus on 1550 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: U.
S.
non-farm payrolls rose by 151,000 in August, unemployment was 4.
9%, and the data was generally worse than expected, diverging Fed September rate hike expectations, but December rate hike expectations have rebounded, and the dollar index is now trading around
95.
7.
The market is currently focused on tonight's US non-farm payrolls data for August, which is expected to increase by 180,000 people, which is positive for the dollar index
.
In terms of market: on September 5, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12570-12590 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 150-160 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12560-12570 yuan / ton, Hangzhou quotation concentrated 12610-12630 yuan / ton
.
Cargo holders maintained stable shipments, Shanghai intermediaries and downstream enterprises increased their inquiries, holders were eager to exchange cash, and took the initiative to slightly reduce prices in the later stage of the transaction, and the transaction slightly warmed up compared with Friday; Wuxi middlemen are willing to receive goods at low prices, downstream bargain hunting, and aluminum volume in the later stage of the transaction is down, but the holders do not adjust prices with the market, and the transaction is gradually cold
.
In terms of industry, Chen Quanxun, president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that in the first seven months, the national electrolytic aluminum output was 17.
98 million tons, down 1.
9% year-on-year, compared with an increase of 12%
in the same period last year.
Affected by the demand for aluminum in the transportation and construction sectors, aluminum consumption increased by 8%
from January to July.
The profit of the aluminum industry increased significantly, driving the efficiency of the entire industry to increase by 13.
7%.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract fell under pressure to 11965 yuan / ton, effectively falling below the technical support, weaker than other base metals and Lun aluminum, but after the aluminum price continued to fall, it is necessary to be vigilant about the possibility of technical correction, it is recommended that the short position of the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can partially reduce the position and leave the market, and pay attention to the rebound to build a short near 12100 yuan, with a target of 11800 yuan / ton
.