Shanghai aluminum still has the possibility of continuing to hit new highs in the short term

In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1636 US dollars / ton in the morning, and Lun aluminum was boosted by domestic Shanghai aluminum to rise strongly, breaking through all moving average resistances one after another, almost repairing last week's decline throughout the week, entering the European trading session Lun aluminum upward speed slowed down, the trading center of gravity slowly moved up, as of 17:08 Lun aluminum high touched 1670 US dollars / ton, the evening data surface is light, it is expected that Lun aluminum maintain high volatility
.

In terms of industry, domestic bauxite imports in September were 4466650 tons, a sharp decrease of 34.
3% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 37709552 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.
87% year-on-year, and Malaysia's continuous bauxite export ban has led to a decline in domestic bauxite supply; Norwegian aluminium producer Hydro slightly raised its 2016 aluminium demand forecast, reiterating its forecast of 4-5% growth in global aluminium demand and saying the growth rate will be near
the upper end of the range.

In terms of the market, the Shanghai aluminum contract continued to rise after the open, and after a short period of stabilization, it took the lead in closing at 13585 yuan / ton
before the afternoon.
Shanghai spot transaction 14050-14070 yuan / ton, the monthly premium of aluminum 490 ~ 560 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction 13990 ~ 14050 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction 14060 ~ 14080 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction in East China is more general, due to the local arrival continues to be less, the holder of the price shipment, but the period aluminum then hit a new high, the downstream fear of high aluminum price mentality is obvious, the wait-and-see mood is gradually strong, so the downstream enterprises in the day receiving sentiment is general, It has also led to the actual transaction premium of spot first rising and then suppressing, and there is almost no transaction after the price of aluminum rises and stops, and the short-term shortage of goods is difficult to improve, and the spot premium may remain high
.
In the afternoon, Wuxi holders quoted 14,090 yuan / ton, but there was almost no transaction
.

Considering that the spot premium remains high, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the production and consumption areas caused by short-term transportation problems is difficult to solve, aluminum prices will continue to perform firmly; On the other hand, due to the continuous sharp rise in the price of thermal coal at the cost end, the profit margin of electrolytic aluminum has narrowed significantly, and the price of aluminum has risen
under the impetus of the cost role.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum ushered in a long-term absence of the limit and hit a new high in the year, superimposed on the shortage of supply and the possibility of forced positions, short-term Shanghai aluminum or continue to shock and strengthen, pay attention to spot and inventory changes in the later stage
.