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This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a wide range of volatility, the main 2101 contract closed at 16110 yuan, down 240 yuan
for the week.
Technically, the long arrangement on the daily line of Shanghai aluminum has been broken, although the head of the pattern has not yet formed, but it is still necessary to be vigilant whether the aluminum price will continue to fall
due to the profit taking of the bulls.
Due to weather pollution, many places in Henan have upgraded the weather warning level of heavy pollution, and alumina, pre-baked anode and aluminum processing enterprises have been greatly affected
.
In terms of aluminum processing, the environmental protection production restriction in Henan Province is mainly aimed at aluminum casting and rolling lines, and the impact is concentrated on aluminum plate, strip and foil processing enterprises
.
At present, the processing fee of aluminum casting and rolling coil in Henan has been raised
.
It is reported that in November 2020 (30 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
77%.
As of early December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased to 38.
79 million tons/year, the completion scale was 42.
75 million tons/year, and the operating rate of national electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 90.
8%.
After entering December, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum rebounded
slightly.
The total social stock of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday was 596,000 tons, down 04,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Stimulated by high smelting profits and high import profits, electrolytic aluminum production and imports may remain high in the future, while demand may decline due to production restrictions, and it is necessary to be vigilant about whether the inflection point of inventory will come
.
From the law of previous years, in order to meet the production of the next year, enterprises will generally replenish the inventory in advance, earlier from November, December, later from January of the following year, although the current aluminum price is higher, but the probability of enterprise stocking will be carried out, from this point of view, the inflection point of social inventory may appear in this month or next month
.
Affected by the European economic stimulus plan, aluminum prices rose sharply intraday, but the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and at the same time, affected by the decline of other varieties, aluminum prices turned downward
.
The current inventory change is still the key to affecting the trend of aluminum prices, if the inventory rises significantly, it will put greater pressure
on aluminum prices.
