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Last night, the Shanghai aluminum index slightly reduced its position by 386 lots up 90 yuan to 17935 yuan / ton, the rhythm first increased the position and then reduced the position rebound, in the short term to maintain a volatile trend, the external trend is relatively stronger than the internal market, mainly because of the recent interference with the market factors, and the external market has accumulated a large decline, overseas energy recent surge provides some support, and the domestic coal price decline signs to put prices under pressure
.
On the macro front, the downward pressure on the European and American economies still exists, and the recent release of the second quarter earnings report of U.
S.
stocks may have an impact on the intensity of interest rate hikes, representing the US consumer retail sales data, Walmart announced on Monday evening that the company lowered its quarterly and full-year profit forecasts due to the rise in food inflation, considering the impact of Walmart's warning on other retail stocks, the move shocked investors; Traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday in response to rising inflationary pressures, and the market expects a 10% risk of a larger Fed rate hike, while waiting for economic warning signs to prompt a shift in rhetoric, and investors need to pay close attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a press conference after the announcement of the interest rate decision to assess whether the risk of recession will slow the Fed to tighten policy
.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.
2% from 3.
6% in April, saying downside risks from inflation were emerging
.
In terms of fundamentals, the recent accumulation of social inventory, aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum rod inventory have accumulated, which has greater pressure on the market, and the price of thermal coal in the cost factor is loose, and the downward pressure is greater
.
In terms of spot transactions, the performance of the aluminum rod market is average, the transaction of low-priced sources is acceptable, the performance of the aluminum ingot market is weakening today, downstream enterprises are not eager to purchase, Wuxi region performance is acceptable, Foshan region performance is weak
.
At present, the overall price of aluminum is in a volatile trend, on the one hand, the domestic policy is favorable but the fundamentals are poor, on the other hand, the overseas macro atmosphere continues to be weak, but the high energy price has the impact of raising costs, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, short-term to the idea of shock operation, but whether the pace of interest rate hikes slows down or not is only the emotional repair in the recession process, it is difficult to change the downward pressure of the economy under inflationary pressure
.
