Shanghai aluminum short-term may continue the trend of high volatility

Last week, the contradiction between supply and demand of aluminum fundamentals was further alleviated, on the supply side, under the strong support of production pressure and low reservoir water level, aluminum prices continued to consolidate at a high level, Yunnan, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia and other places to increase power rationing, Yunnan power grid requires some aluminum plants to expand the load reduction to 30% on the basis of 25% load reduction, and it is expected that the annual production capacity of 5% of the new shutdown is about 150,000 tons; Guangxi Power Grid issued a 3 million kWh shift load reduction instruction, Inner Mongolia following the power rationing requirements in Mengdong in July, Mengxi region will also face secondary dual control pressure in August, which has little impact on the original production capacity, but the pace of new production is expected to continue to be delayed
.

On the demand side, under the current market in the off-season, corporate processing fees rose slightly this week, and orders faced a partial decline, but the marginal reduction rate slowed down
.
Henan was affected by the flood and the epidemic control in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places intensified, the transportation of raw materials and migrant workers were hindered and there was a certain reduction in production, and the current orders for aluminum strips and aluminum cables in other regions were still sufficient, and the supply of cans was relatively tight
.
Under the current off-season consumption exceeding market expectations, the peak season shows the characteristics of a long cycle and gradually moves out of the pattern
of off-season.

In terms of inventory, this year's continuous low water level social library to give strong support below the price of aluminum, last week inventory decreased by 26,000 tons, the current inventory level at the level of 732,000 tons, still continue the rhythm of destocking, coupled with the impact of Henan flood, Gongyi, Wuxi warehouse aluminum ingots out of the warehouse normal operation, low storage volume makes the speed of destocking further accelerated
.
The inflection point of accumulation continues to move back, and aluminum prices will run
at a high level.

In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue the trend of high volatility, the main force above can pay attention to the 20500 pressure level, but considering the current high or will again face the policy pressure at the national level, it is expected that the pressure above 20000 is large, pay attention to the shock range of 1.
95-20,200, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate steadily
.