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Overnight, Lun aluminum fell sharply to close the shade, opening slightly lower at $1478 today, and Shanghai aluminum continued to fall to close in the shade after falling yesterday, falling back to near
the 20-day moving average.
Shanghai aluminum overnight trading fell and positions continued to rise, spot prices formed a strong support for the market, and today may get support at the 20-day moving average of 13000
.
The external trend is too bad, and the Shanghai aluminum technical pattern began to weaken, and the short-term high momentum is insufficient, which may fluctuate
in the current position.
Shanghai aluminum upper pressure 12700, lower support 12000
.
With the stabilization of overseas stock markets and strong policy stimulus in various countries, macro sentiment has warmed up, but at present, overseas stock markets have rebounded more, the US stock market earnings ratio has returned to historical highs, policy favorable may be difficult to support macro sentiment to continue to rise, vigilance against metal pullback risk
.
On the supply side: profit repair and production reduction slowed down the resumption of production; Cost side: Alumina rebound thermal coal is weak, profit has improved
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic spot continued to maintain a large premium, while the LME was heavily discounted; In terms of stocks: LME stocks rose continuously to 1.
35 million tons, down 21,600 tons to 389,000 tons in the previous period, and 50,000 tons to 1.
08 million tons in the social treasury
.
Recently, aluminum prices have shown high volatility, the center of gravity has slightly declined, of which the pattern of internal strength and external weakness continues, and after the historical opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot imports, pressure on domestic continued bullish expectations
.
At present, due to the promotion of real estate and infrastructure rush to promote downstream consumption, but with the price rebound, the downstream willingness to continue to stock up declined, and the replacement of scrap aluminum decreased, and the supply side was also affected by the recovery of profits, and the reduction of production disappeared and resumed production began to gradually advance, which can also be confirmed by the slowdown in inventory decline
.
This week, the spot side support is still there, but the demand margin has slowed down, the import arbitrage window has opened, and the aluminum price continues to have greater upward pressure, and the operation is recommended to test the high above 12,500 yuan / ton
.
