Shanghai aluminum shock strengthens short-term direction decision

In terms of the external market, today's Asian Lun aluminum bottomed out, of which 3-month Lun aluminum rose slightly by 0.
52% to 1647 US dollars / ton, still close to the recent high (1672 US dollars / ton), the overall maintenance of nearly a week of high oscillation finishing platform, performance resistance to other base metals, showing its intrinsic willingness to rise, short-term operating range focus on 1600-1680 US dollars / ton
.

Macro: The U.
S.
dollar index oscillated slightly overnight and is now trading around 96.
1, but U.
S
.
crude oil futures fell 5.
64% under pressure, dragging down industrial products.
Today's focus on June's non-farm payrolls data, which will be released tonight, is expected to be better than May, but the increase is far less than the previous increase of 200,000 people, indicating a marked slowdown
in the improvement of the US labor market.

Market: On July 8, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 13010-13030 yuan / ton, the premium for the month was 40-60 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 12990-13000 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13050-13070 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum fluctuated before noon of the month, market confidence was boosted, middlemen's willingness to replenish goods was still more active, cargo holders shipped steadily, downstream weekend stocking demand, willingness to receive goods increased, and the overall transaction was warmer
than yesterday.

In terms of industries, the United States imported 797,730 tons from January to May this year, down 73.
8% year-on-year; During the same period, the United States exported a total of 28,119 tons, an increase of 16.
4% year-on-year, and the data showed that in the first half of this year, the United States imported unprocessed aluminum decreased and exports increased, showing that domestic aluminum demand fell
significantly.

Today's Shanghai aluminum 1609 contract oscillation strengthened to 12565 yuan / ton, back to the average group of operation, this week Shanghai aluminum performance is much stronger than other base metals, showing its intrinsic willingness to rise, but the current aluminum price has not got rid of the high oscillation finishing trend, it is recommended to operate cautiously
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 1609 contract can be sold high and low between 12450-12750 yuan, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.