Shanghai aluminum shock strengthened, short-term rebound pattern remains

In terms of external disk, Asian Lun aluminum around 1620 US dollars / ton narrow fluctuations, performance weaker than Shanghai aluminum, of which 3 months Lun aluminum is basically flat at 1618 US dollars / ton, the current Lun aluminum fell into a high oscillation for nearly a week, showing that its upward momentum is insufficient, short-term oscillation operating range attention to 1600-1650 US dollars / ton
.

Macro: The Asian dollar index retreated and is now trading around 95.
7, and market uncertainty has been temporarily lifted
after the announcement of the British referendum result.
In addition, the People's Bank of China's entrepreneur confidence index for the second quarter was 49%, up 5.
3% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that the market has improved the outlook for China's economy, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI
for June will be released on Friday.

Market: On June 27, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12600-12610 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 40-50 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai holders are selling at high prices, the market supply is tight, Wuxi and Hangzhou holders are stable shipments, middlemen are difficult to find low-price sources, downstream enterprises end of month and mid-year settlement, coupled with price changes too fast, less stocking, because the inventory is a low level within 5 years, but the uncertainty of the international macro environment, and the downstream is subject to the restrictions of mid-year settlement, the supply and demand sides show a continuous glue of
tug-of-war.

In terms of the industry, according to the UAE media "The National" reported on June 22, the UAE Global Aluminum Group plans to invest 1 billion US dollars to mine bauxite in the Bokai region of Guinea
.

Overall, the Shanghai aluminum 1608 contract oscillation strengthened to 12375 yuan / ton, which was stronger than Lun aluminum and still effectively stabilized above
the moving average group.
In addition, the previous period of aluminum inventories continued to decline, making its supply tight.

It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1608 contract can be sold high and low between 12450-12200 yuan, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.