Shanghai aluminum shock stabilized short-term rebound pattern maintained well

In terms of external trading, LME aluminum oscillation rebounded today, of which 3-month Lun aluminum traded at 1928-1916 US dollars / ton, now up 0.
47% to 1925 US dollars / ton, the current London aluminum fell into a high wide oscillation for the second consecutive week, showing that long and short trading is cautious, the direction of operation is not clear
.

On the macro front, the Asian dollar index extended its overnight decline, falling further to around 94.
1, the lowest since
June 23 last year.
In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of July 15 was 233,000, the 124th consecutive week below the threshold of 300,000, the longest cycle since the 70s of the 20th century, and better than expected 245,000, indicating a significant improvement
in the US job market.

In the aluminum market, data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI) showed that the global primary aluminum production excluding China in June was 2.
108 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous month, while China's primary aluminum production in June was 2.
931 million tons, an increase of 106,000 tons from the previous month, indicating that China's primary aluminum production increased more than the rest of the world, which means that the global primary aluminum supply is still relatively sufficient
.

In terms of the market, on July 20, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 14170-14180 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 160-150 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 14170-14180 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 14180-14190 yuan / ton
.
Holders are happy to ship, but the spot price fluctuates above Wansi, downstream enterprises are difficult to pass on the rising costs, maintain procurement according to just demand, spot discount remains stable around 150 yuan / ton, middlemen have no room for operation, and the overall transaction remains low
.
The overall transaction this week was worse
than last week.

During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1709 contract oscillated to 14445 yuan / ton, and the short-term rebound pattern remained good, which means that bulls' confidence has further climbed, as the market hopes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply reform will enter the implementation stage
.
However, as domestic primary aluminum production continued to reach a new high in June, it is necessary to be wary of the suppression
of aluminum prices.
The Shanghai aluminum 1709 contract can be backed above 14250 yuan to buy at a pullback, with an entry reference around 14350 yuan and a target of 14600 yuan
.