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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1701 fell into a high wide range of oscillation, the performance slightly resisted the decline in base metals, because of its relative stagnation last week, closing at 14330 yuan / ton, up 1.
6% daily, trading range of 14850-13610 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1612 and 1701 contracts widened slightly to 420 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum oscillation higher, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
08% to 1770 US dollars / ton, the current aluminum price from the October pullback low of 1608 US dollars / ton rebounded more than 9.
6%, the performance is stronger than Shanghai aluminum, its lower technical support focus on 1700 US dollars / ton, the upper rebound resistance focus on the previous high of 1800 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index oscillated higher, now up 0.
49% to around 99.
5, with the 100 mark on the horizon as the market rekindled expectations
for the Fed's interest rate hike in December.
In addition, the market expects that Trump's accession to office will increase the stimulus to the US economy, thereby enhancing the attractiveness
of the dollar index.
Aluminum industry information, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's primary aluminum production in October was 2.
73 million tons, an increase of 1.
1% year-on-year, and China's cumulative primary aluminum production from January to October was 26.
18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
1%.
In terms of market: on November 14, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 15300-15340 yuan / ton, the monthly premium 50-200 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 15290-15330 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 15350-15410 yuan / ton
.
Near the month change, the future aluminum fell in the month, the price spread fluctuated widely in the next month, the willingness of the holders to exchange cash at a high level was extremely strong, with the decline of the future aluminum month and the price was lowered, the middleman cautious mood gradually increased, downstream enterprises were afraid of heights, waiting for the month change, and the overall transaction was relatively cold
.
During the day, the oscillation of the Shanghai aluminum 1701 contract rose slightly to 14330 yuan / ton, because the short-term financial attributes of base metals dominated, the contradiction between supply and demand was temporarily ignored, and the overall market had a strong long atmosphere
.
In this context, short orders need to reduce positions and leave the market, and it is not advisable to risk reaching the top
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1701 contract is cautiously long above 14,000 yuan in the short term, and if it falls below, it will leave the market and wait and see
.
