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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Shanghai aluminum shock slightly rise, short-term still need to pay attention to the downside risk

    Shanghai aluminum shock slightly rise, short-term still need to pay attention to the downside risk

    • Last Update: 2022-12-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract bottomed out, rising to 11995 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 0.
    25% from yesterday's closing price, and the current Shanghai aluminum is still running below the moving average group, and the short-term downside risk increases
    .
    At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts widened slightly to 150 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to fall has risen
    .

    Shanghai aluminum

    External: Today's Ashi Lun aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, of which 3-month Lun aluminum rose 0.
    79% to 1591 US dollars / ton, from the previous high of 1709 US dollars / ton down nearly 7%, the current Lun aluminum effectively runs below M60, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be wary of technical correction demand, the lower support is concerned about 1550 US dollars / ton, the upper rebound resistance is 1650 US dollars / ton
    .

    Macro: The RBA kept interest rates unchanged today as scheduled and expects inflation to remain unchanged for a long time to come, the US dollar index oscillated slightly during the day, now trading around 95.
    6, and the market is currently focused on tomorrow's China August trade balance
    .
    In terms of aluminum market industry information, it is reported that Japanese buyers intend to reduce the amount of aluminum purchased in annual contracts and switch to the spot market, due to the continuous oversupply in recent months, which has reduced the spot aluminum premium to the lowest
    in more than 7 years.

    In terms of market: Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12400-12410 yuan / ton, the premium for the month was 120-130 yuan / ton
    .
    Holders are eager to exchange cash and actively ship, downstream enterprises are actively purchasing at the low, the trend of aluminum is not clear, the middleman is hesitant to prepare goods, mainly for the downstream to receive goods, 11 points period aluminum touch low to rise 30 yuan / ton, Wuxi holders with the price adjustment to 12410 yuan / ton, but downstream enterprises wait and see this price, the overall transaction is concentrated in downstream low-price procurement
    .

    Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract oscillation slightly rose to 11995 yuan / ton, because aluminum prices continued to fall, triggering technical correction demand, it is recommended that Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract short can partially reduce positions and leave the market, and pay attention to the rebound to around 12100 yuan to build short, the target reference 11800 yuan / ton
    .

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