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On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract further expanded its rise to 12385 yuan / ton, up 1.
35% from the closing price on Friday, and the daily closing price was close to the level of July 18 in the year.
The term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1609 and 1610 contracts widened slightly to 125 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Asian aluminum continued to rebound, of which 3-month Lun aluminum rose 0.
79% to 1658 US dollars / ton, the performance is stronger than Shanghai aluminum and other base metals, the current Lun aluminum is still effectively stabilized above M60, and the daily closing price hit a new high since July 18 this year, up 4.
44% from the recent low of 1588 US dollars / ton, and the upper resistance is 1700 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The U.
S.
dollar index stabilized in early trading, basically maintaining the gains in Friday's night market, now trading around 96.
3, boosted by much better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data in the United States, but at the same time the U.
S.
crude oil futures contract continued to rebound, rising further to $42.
36 / barrel, partially offsetting the pressure caused by the strengthening of the dollar
.
However, China's imports in dollar terms fell 5.
7% year-on-year in July, and exports fell 4.
4% year-on-year, a much sharper-than-expected
decline.
In terms of news, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 390,000 tons, an increase of 2.
6% month-on-month and 8.
3% year-on-year, but the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to July this year was 2.
67 million tons, down 6.
86%
year-on-year.
Market: On August 8, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12700-12720 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 130-140 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai holders are not worried about their inventory pressure, price attitude is resolute, Wuxi Monday inventory slightly increased, holders are slightly more willing to cash out, although the later stage of the transaction aluminum upward, but the transaction is suppressed, the holder took the initiative to lower the price, middlemen have different views on the future market, bullish middlemen replenishment willingness is more positive, downstream enterprises have no inventory pressure, high prices wait and see sentiment breeds, the overall transaction shows Monday characteristics
.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract oscillated slightly to 12065 yuan / ton, the performance resisted the decline of other base metals, but still ran below the moving average group, the short-term decline risk increased, the operation idea needs to be changed, short stop loss exit
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract can be backed by 12220 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is 12150 yuan, and the target is 11900 yuan
.
