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On Monday morning, Shanghai aluminum opened at 16180 yuan / ton, the early aluminum price was weak and shocked, and then the early entry of bulls left the market on a large scale, aluminum prices straight down the low level touched 15680 yuan / ton, triggering more short-term short take profit to close, coupled with the 5-day moving average support again, aluminum prices low back up, once stepped back to 15965 yuan / ton in the afternoon, but the rebound obviously lacked funds to follow, plus the previous period of entry bulls chose to continue to leave, so Shanghai aluminum closed down again at 15780 yuan / ton
。 Since the supply reform has temporarily come to an end, and Shanghai aluminum has accumulated a large number of long positions in the early stage, the long funds entering the market in the early stage have made profits in stages, and the pullback of Shanghai aluminum is also reasonable, and there is still room for downside in the short term
.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 2045 US dollars / ton in the morning, the Asian session was affected by the domestic Shanghai aluminum, the frequency of Lun aluminum oscillation is large, the straight line at the beginning of the session leaked down to 2024.
5 US dollars / ton, and then the 5-day moving average support showed again, the low level of Lun aluminum gradually rose back to 2043 US dollars / ton, but the upward momentum was obviously insufficient, and the end of the session fell again to around 2028 US dollars / ton, entering the European trading session Lun aluminum shock running below the daily moving average, trying to make an effective breakthrough, as of 17 :23, Lun aluminum reported 2034.
5 US dollars / ton, it is expected that the long and short will continue to compete
around the 5-day moving average.
In terms of the market, aluminum fell by more than 200 yuan / ton before noon of the month, and then the low level fluctuated
.
Shanghai transaction concentration 15520-15540 yuan / ton, the month discount 140-130 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 15520-15540 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 15560-15580 yuan / ton, the period aluminum fell sharply, the holder shipments were stable and slightly reduced, spot weaker than futures, middlemen received goods generally, spot fell sharply, downstream enterprises entered the purchase willingness has improved, the overall transaction compared with last Friday
。 In the late afternoon, aluminum rose first and then suppressed in the month, the price difference between high and low was nearly 200 yuan / ton, the holder followed the shipment, the quotation was more chaotic, the main contract quotation discount 330-260 yuan / ton, the spot transaction price was 15490-15580 yuan / ton, a small amount of transactions
.
In terms of news, the recent market adjustment, but the aluminum market is obviously precipitated, the current aluminum market in the fundamental decline, aluminum ingot aluminum rod inventory has increased significantly, the subsequent oversupply and demand alleviation still needs to be significantly reduced
.
Aluminum prices may fluctuate in the near future, but it is not recommended to short, and it is recommended to maintain a rational wait-and-see attitude
for the time being after the aluminum price comes to 16,000 yuan.
On the technical side, the main KDJ and MACD double golden forks of Shanghai aluminum, the price rise is too strong, and it is expected that there may be a short-term pullback close to the 5-day moving average
.
It is expected that the spot price may remain above
15800 yuan / ton.
