Shanghai aluminum shock operation The fundamentals are generally weak

Today's Lun aluminum butterfly dance, LME three-month aluminum Beijing time at 15:00 at 2018 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars, or 0.
25%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River was 14890-14930 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 14810-14870 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan; Hua reported 15000-15020 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan
.
Holders have shipped goods, demand has not improved significantly, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction situation is not satisfactory
.

Domestic aluminium producers have urged the government to raise the base duties on primary aluminium and scrap to 10 per cent respectively from the current 7.
5 per cent and 2.
5 per cent in the 2021-22 budget to curb the growth
in imports.

On the macro front, US listed companies ushered in the earnings season this week, the market risk aversion sentiment was high, the VIX index soared, the US bond yield fell, and the demand for US dollar safe-haven increased
.
In terms of fundamentals, the domestic epidemic rebounded, downstream consumption was suppressed, coupled with the collapse of aluminum prices in the previous period, the amount of aluminum plant ingots continued to increase, but logistics were tight and the arrival of goods was slow; Electrolytic aluminum production continued to expand, and consumption slowed down significantly
.

Fundamentally, domestic output in January was about 3.
3 million tons, up 8% year-on-year, and the supply increase was obvious
when imported goods arrived at Hong Kong.
In terms of consumption, the seasonal weakening of terminal orders in January was transmitted
to processing and procurement.
Supply and demand have become weak, and short-term transportation problems are difficult to change the accumulation trend, so that the rebound aluminum price returns to adjustment, targeting the 14500-14800 range
.
From a medium-term perspective, the long-term new production landing is lower than expected, and the high base of consumption in 2020 guarantees the total long-term consumption, which greatly eases the long-term supply pressure, and the medium-term aluminum price turns to a volatile view
.
In terms of rhythm, the momentum of destocking in the peak season is still there, and it is optimistic that aluminum prices and price spreads will strengthen
after the holiday.