Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, short-term rebound height is limited

Today, Lun aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range, and the LME was reported at $2,518 / ton at 15:01 Beijing time for three months, up slightly by $4, or 0.
16%,
from the previous session's settlement price.

Today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 19840-19880 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan, premium 0-liter 40; Guangdong spot 19830-19890 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan, discount 10-liter water 50; China reported 19890-19930 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan
.
Cargo holders accelerated the pace of shipments, receiving parties pressed prices more and less mining under the fear of decline, trading performance weakened, and the overall transaction was not good
.

The market maintained a narrow range this week, with strong expectations and weak reality as the current status quo, coupled with the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, putting pressure
on the overall industrial goods.
At present, the resumption of work and production and active fiscal policies brought about by the gradual liberalization of the national epidemic are the two main macro lines at present, but the relatively cautious transaction under strong expectations is the main contradiction at present, and the market may be further pressured
by the expectation of interest rate hikes.

In terms of fundamentals, because the supply side is still at a high level, it remains to be observed whether production and maintenance are stopped due to profit reduction, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is gradually declining, in line with seasonal laws
.
Alumina port inventories began to rebound, while downstream aluminium rod inventories remained stable
.
Cost side: As aluminum prices continue to fall, the profits of production enterprises are also fluctuating
around 2,000 yuan / .
At present, the expected speculation of demand has been digested by the market, and the actual realization of subsequent consumption has become the direction of market prices, and if the market further raises interest rates, aluminum prices will also be further pressured
.

Today's Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, the stock market has risen sharply and oil prices have risen, coupled with the continuous dematerialization of domestic aluminum warehouses, so that aluminum prices have received some support below, but it is still necessary to pay attention to supply increments and demand recovery, and the short-term Shanghai aluminum rebound is highly limited
.