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Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly after the opening, and after a little sideways consolidation, it began to oscillate downward, and the decline increased in the afternoon, touching 12225 yuan / ton at a low level, and then rebounded slightly to close at 12260 yuan / ton
.
The night session opened at 12290 yuan / ton, then quickly fell to 12205 yuan / ton before rebounding slightly, and then slightly sideways volatility, and finally closed at 12250 yuan / ton
.
Macro, abroad, the US economic data is expected to be good, the US dollar index is strengthened, dragging the base metal downward, the outer plate of aluminum is under pressure to fall, and the support below is concerned about $
1500.
Domestically, the accelerated depreciation of the RMB is difficult to curb, the pattern of internal strength and external weakness of base metals continues, the Shanghai aluminum shock rises, the upward momentum of aluminum prices can weaken, and it is expected that the market will maintain a sideways trend in the future
.
In terms of the market, the enthusiasm of the two markets to receive goods was weak yesterday, the transaction was slightly cold, the price fell rapidly during the day, and the spot premium was repaired
.
Today's domestic spot trading average price is between 12690-12730 yuan / ton, intraday spot aluminum rose slightly, holders are actively shipping, middlemen and downstream willingness to receive goods is not high, market transactions are light
.
In terms of the industry, yesterday an electrolytic aluminum plant in Guangxi announced that it would be put into operation in July, involving an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons
.
Abroad, the two trading companies on Monday agreed to finalize the contract premium for third-quarter aluminum imports at $81 per tonne premium (CIF Japan) compared to LME spot, significantly lower than Rio's quotation of $110/tonne, a quantity of 500 tons per month or more, and a loading date of
July-September.
In summary, the short-term dollar rise is expected to become one of the main factors hindering the rise of metals, but supported by tight supply, the aluminum market has performed better than other metals, and it is expected that there will still be upside in the short term
.
In the long run, Shanghai aluminum is still in the state of box operation, the fluctuation range is gradually smaller, the trading volume has declined for 5 consecutive days, and the market is slightly entangled
.
