Shanghai aluminum shock down There may not be much space below

On Wednesday night, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a public speech in which he stressed that the Fed will "closely monitor the impact of related matters on the U.
S.
economy and take appropriate measures to sustain the economic expansion.
"
This was a relatively strong signal from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which led to a rapid weakening of the dollar index and a rebound
in copper prices.
According to the CME Fed, the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 82.
6%.

In late May, the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply, and the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields inverted
.
This indicates that the US economy has indeed had a relatively big problem, and a large part of the reason for the Fed's "interest rate cut" remarks is also due to the inversion
of US bond yields.

。

The IMF cut its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2019 to 6.
2%
from 6.
3%.
Lowered China's 2020 GDP growth forecast from 6.
1% to 6%.

China's inflation rate is forecast to rise to 2.
3%
in 2019.

This week's alumina price is still relatively firm, the current national average price of alumina is about 3175 yuan / ton, this week electrolytic aluminum price trend is weak, but alumina prices show no signs of
loosening.
At present, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 14350 yuan / ton, so the price of
electrolytic aluminum is supported.

Although the domestic alumina price is very strong, but the price of overseas alumina is obviously much weaker, the current Theo alumina FOB is 368 US dollars / ton, in the case of a sharp rise in domestic alumina prices, overseas alumina has only risen slightly, indicating that overseas alumina pressure is greater
.

Because the Brazilian authorities have approved the resumption of production of the Alunorte alumina plant in Brazil, Alunorte's output will reach 75~85%
of its 6.
3 million tons of production capacity within two months.
While it will take time for production to be released in the short term, expectations of a significant increase in supply in the future are already there
.

On Thursday, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum totaled 1.
12 million tons, down 61,000 tons
from last Thursday.
After 3 months of continuous decline, social electrolytic aluminum stocks have reached a relatively normal level, and inventories have basically no pressure
on aluminum prices.

Alumina prices may have reached a stage high, or close to a high, so an important factor that previously drove the rise of electrolytic aluminum may be about to weaken, so it is inferred that electrolytic aluminum may continue to be weak in the near future, but there may not be much
space below.