Shanghai aluminum shock adjustment prices fell slightly

Market focus: (1) On Tuesday (July 14), local time, US President Trump announced that he had signed a regulation that would impose sanctions
on Chinese entities and individuals who "help limit Hong Kong's autonomy".
(2) At the end of June 2020, the inventory of Chinese alumina producers was about 95,000 tons, an increase of 35.
71% month-on-month and 5.
56%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On July 15, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14800-14840 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14820 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton
per day.
In the morning, traders inquired positively, the willingness of holders to ship was not high and relatively high, and the transaction heat gradually rose after 10:00, but in view of the fact that a large household still did not carry out a procurement plan in East China within the day, it was difficult for traders to actually increase the volume of their own transactions, and the trading between the two sides was more general
.
Downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased
significantly compared with Monday.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 115943 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1801 tons per day; On July 14, LME aluminum stocks were 1669550 tons, down 5,350 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contracts were 84488 lots, minus 3965 lots per day, short positions were 101968 lots, daily minus 1681 lots, net short positions were 17480 lots, daily increase of 2284 lots, long and short were reduced, net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: on July 15, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 shock adjustment
.
Domestic alumina prices rose, as the domestic electrolytic aluminum production profit was significantly repaired, the operating rate of aluminum plants continued to rise, and the demand for alumina increased; The rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to an import profit window of more than 1,000 yuan / ton, stimulating overseas source imports, and the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has rebounded significantly, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices has weakened
.
However, under the global monetary easing policy, and the economy showed a recovery trend; The performance of domestic downstream demand is still down, the short-term supply tension continues, and the support for aluminum prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, traders inquired actively in the morning, holders were not willing to ship and relatively high prices, and downstream intraday on-demand procurement was the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions significantly, paying attention to the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the short-term shock will adjust.

In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can operate in the range of 14350-14700 yuan / ton, with a stop loss of 100 yuan / ton
each.