Shanghai aluminum shock adjustment demand outlook is optimistic

Market focus: (1) The US PCE price index increased by 0.
2% month-on-month in February, lower than expectations and 0.
3% in the previous month, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.
1% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.
2%.

(2) According to my nonferrous metals, on March 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 1.
231 million tons, down 05,000 tons from last Thursday and 24,000 tons
from last Monday.
(3) On March 29, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in China's main market was 217,000 tons, down 02,000 tons from last Thursday and 21,500 tons
from last Monday.

Spot analysis: On March 29, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17370-17410 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17390 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 60 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported, the atmosphere of fear of heights is getting stronger, the willingness to receive goods is poor, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction continues to weaken
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 155975 tons, a daily decrease of 500 tons, and a drop of 9 consecutive days; On March 26, LME aluminum stocks were 1,926,000 tons, a daily decrease of 8,425 tons, a decline of 5 consecutive days
.
As of the week of March 26, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 378792 tons, a weekly increase of 3221 tons, an increase of 9 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 140414 lots, a daily decrease of 793 lots, a short position of 148757 lots, a daily decrease of 35 lots, a net short position of 8343 lots, a daily increase of 758 lots, long and short decreases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2105 shock adjustment
on March 29.
The recent better-than-expected performance of the US initial request data showed that the US economy continued to recover, which boosted market risk sentiment; However, the Federal Reserve recently said that the US economy has seen a substantial recovery, and it will reduce the scale of bond purchases in the future, making the dollar index continue to strengthen
.
There is news that the National Reserve Bank plans to collect aluminum ingots before selling, raising concerns about increased supply; At present, the speed of domestic production capacity launch is slow, and the dual control policy of energy consumption in Baotou in Inner Mongolia also affects
output.
And the recent decline in aluminum ingot inventory has expanded, downstream demand has shown signs of recovery, demand prospects are optimistic, and aluminum prices have stabilized
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced his position greatly, and the daily KDJ indicator golden cross, which is expected to adjust at a high level in the future
.