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On August 20, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell back, with the highest 14815 yuan / ton and the lowest 14640 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14675 yuan / ton, up 0.
27% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In terms of external trading, LME aluminum opened low and rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1789 US dollars / ton, down 0.
17%
on a daily basis.
Market Focus: (1) The minutes show that the Fed believes that the implementation of yield control policies will bring only small benefits, and expects the economic recovery to weaken
in the second half of the year.
(2) China's Ministry of Commerce said that the two sides have agreed to hold a call
in the near future.
Spot analysis, on August 20, spot A00 aluminum reported 14770-14810 yuan / ton, the average price was 14790 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton
per day.
Warehouse receipt inventory, last Thursday Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 143727 tons, a daily decrease of 676 tons; On August 19, LME aluminum stocks were 1,585,000 tons, a daily decrease of 5,550 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 70165 lots, an increase of 81 lots per day, short positions are 86773 lots, a daily increase of 1486 lots, net short positions are 16608 lots, a daily increase of 1405 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On August 20, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 rushed back down
.
The minutes of the Fed meeting were less dovish than market expectations, and the dollar index rebounded sharply; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually recovered, and the downstream demand has gradually weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory has recently entered the inventory increase cycle, which has put pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, China and the United States agreed to hold a call in recent days, which was positive for market sentiment; At the same time, the Alunrote alumina plant reduced production, and it is expected that the price of alumina will stop falling and stabilize; And the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level overall, and the pressure on the supply side is still limited, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions greatly, paying attention to the resistance of the previous high, and it is expected that the short-term high will fluctuate
.
