Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and the consumption season is expected to support prices strongly

Market focus: (1) US non-farm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, far less than the expected increase of 1 million, and the March data was revised downward to an increase of 770,000
.
The unemployment rate edged up to 6.
1 percent
.
(2) China's electrolytic aluminum output in April was 3.
25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
87%, and the average daily output increased slightly by 0.
04 million tons
compared with March.
(3) My nonferrous metal network, on May 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 1.
105 million tons, down 10,000 tons
from last Thursday.

Spot analysis: On May 10, spot A00 aluminum reported 20010-20050 yuan / ton, the average price was 20030 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 340 yuan / ton
.
Holders ship goods at a high price, the willingness to receive goods is reduced, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction is weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 158655 tons, an increase of 2336 tons per day; On May 7, LME stocks were 1,797,100 tons, down 5,075 tons per day, down for five consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract 171361 lots, a daily increase of 2939 lots, short positions of 185468 lots, a daily increase of 3870 lots, a net short position of 14107 lots, a daily increase of 931 lots, both long and short increases, net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 rose sharply on May 10
.
The US dollar index came under pressure on the unexpectedly weak US non-farm payrolls data for April, coupled with Fed officials reiterating a dovish attitude; At the same time, the world's major economies are expected to maintain their recovery momentum, and the economic outlook remains optimistic
.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in full production, and the growth space of the operating rate is limited
.
Although the impact of dual control of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia gradually decreased in April, under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will still be limited
for a long time.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has entered a downward trend, the consumption season has gradually emerged, and domestic aluminum rod inventory has also continued to be destocked, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum stands at the 20,000 mark, paying attention to the support of the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that the market will continue to rise
in the future.