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On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1712 contract continued to rebound, intraday trading at 16085-16395 yuan / ton, the end of the day rose to 16325 yuan / ton, up 1.
08% per day, the current Shanghai aluminum tends to fall below the high oscillation range built in two months, this week performance is worse than other base metals
.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1711 and 1712 contracts narrowed to 80 yuan / ton, maintaining a positive arrangement
of near, low, far high.
In terms of external trading, Asia Lun aluminum continued to rebound, of which 3-month Lun aluminum traded at 2166-2151 yuan / ton, up 0.
67% from the previous day to 2163 US dollars / ton, the performance is stronger than Shanghai aluminum, ranked in the middle of the base metals, pay attention to the integer mark resistance
above 2200 US dollars / ton.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index extended its rebound and is now trading around 93.
5, sharply cutting the losses of the previous two days
.
In the week ended October 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 222,000, the lowest since March 1973, and the expectation was 240,000, revised from 243,000 to 244,000
.
The improvement in the US labor market has increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in December, and the probability of a rate hike in December is now as high as 90%.
In terms of the aluminum market, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's primary aluminum production in September was 2.
61 million tons, a new low since April 2016, down 5.
6% year-on-year, down 1.
13% month-on-month, for three consecutive months, while the cumulative output of primary aluminum from January to September was 24.
66 million tons, a slight increase of 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low since November last year.
In terms of the market, on October 20, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 16090-16120 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 150-130 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 16090-16120 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 16090-16120 yuan / ton
.
Holders of goods are actively shipped, middlemen are cautious, only downstream enterprises to receive goods, earlier I heard that someone wants to receive goods, but in the end because of more shipments, the last did not go, downstream enterprises stocked the weekend, the amount of goods received has improved, the overall transaction is active, mainly concentrated in downstream enterprises
.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1712 oscillation rebounded to 16325 yuan / ton, and the current Shanghai aluminum returned to the oscillation range and failed to break downward, indicating that short-term long and short trading is repeated
.
However, as domestic aluminum inventories continue to hit new highs, it is still expected to curb further increases in aluminum prices, and it is operationally recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1712 contract can be sold high and low between 16100-16400 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
