Shanghai aluminum rebounded sharply and is expected to adjust to the high level of the market in the future

Market focus: (1) According to US President Joe Biden on March 31, he announced an infrastructure package totaling about $2.
25 trillion and expressed hope that Congress would approve the plan
this summer.
(2) The US ADP employment report showed an increase of 517,000 jobs in March, compared with 117,000 in the previous month and 550,000
expected.
(3) As of the end of February 2021, the aluminum inventory of Japan's three major ports decreased by 2.
5% from the previous month to 268,700 tons, and the inventory at the end of January 2021 was 275,500 tons
.

Spot analysis: On April 1, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17240-17280 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17260 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 100 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders were slightly reluctant to sell, the demand for receiving goods was better, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the transaction performance was acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 154485 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 2434 tons; On March 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1897075 tons, a daily decrease of 8,300 tons, and a decline of 8 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 133419 lots, a daily increase of 875 lots, short positions of 141180 lots, a daily increase of 4827 lots, a net short position of 7761 lots, a daily increase of 3952 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2105 rebounded
sharply on April 1.
The news of US President Joe Biden's large-scale infrastructure plan has boosted market risk sentiment, but the market expects the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data to rise sharply, and the US economic recovery confidence has increased, which also increased the attractiveness
of the US dollar.
There is news that the National Reserve Bank plans to collect aluminum ingots before selling, raising concerns about increased supply; At present, the speed of domestic production capacity launch is slow, and the dual control policy of energy consumption in Baotou in Inner Mongolia also affects
output.
Recently, aluminum ingot inventories have shown a downward trend, Japanese port aluminum inventories have also declined, downstream demand has shown signs of recovery, and the demand outlook is optimistic, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased significantly, and the triangular convergence trend is expected to adjust at a high level in the future
.