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Last week, the Shanghai aluminum 2005 contract fell 2.
13%, and the position fell and the trading volume was average
.
The spread of the overseas epidemic has intensified, the global manufacturing industry has been hit hard, and the aluminum export situation is grim
.
The planned overhaul of the aluminum plant will expand to about 500,000 tons, but it is far from enough to reverse the market in the face of the
industry's inventory of more than 2.
6 million tons.
Alumina began to accelerate its decline, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum will continue to sink
.
Shanghai aluminum rebounded near the end of last week, but the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or sell short
.
The macro aspect is bearish for metals, Saudi Arabia's oil campaign and the continuous impact of overseas epidemics, market panic spread today, led by the fall of external metals, domestic metals fell
in response.
However, from the domestic point of view, the resumption of work of specific downstream enterprises gradually improved, but the operating rate is still low, in February, the operating rate of aluminum plate and foil, aluminum profile, aluminum cable and recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has fallen year-on-year, of which the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip foil and recycled aluminum enterprises in March fell month-on-month, and it is expected to recover slightly in March, but it has declined significantly
compared with the same period last year.
At present, domestic aluminum inventory into the accumulation, aluminum social inventory is currently beginning to carry out more obvious seasonal accumulation, social inventory accumulation to around 1.
68 million tons, the current price of alumina is weak, the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum is low, the company's profit is expected to make the later electrolytic aluminum production capacity resume worries remain.
In terms of consumption, it pays attention to the pulling effect
of infrastructure and completed area on aluminum.
According to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, and the fiscal deficit ratio will be appropriately raised and special government bonds
will be issued.
Coupled with the decision of the previous G20 summit to launch a $5 trillion economic boost plan, market confidence has been boosted, and global risk assets have begun to rebound
.
However, the core contradiction of aluminum prices is still concentrated on epidemic control
.
The foreign epidemic continues to deteriorate, and from the perspective of the number of new confirmed cases, the overseas epidemic has no easing trend, which is reflected in the electrolytic aluminum industry chain as an adverse effect on the export of aluminum products, and terminal consumption has been suppressed
.
Electrolytic aluminum social inventories are still high, continuing to put pressure
on aluminum prices.
Recently, market confidence has been boosted, and risk assets have all risen, but the overseas epidemic is still a big problem, and it is recommended that new orders wait and see
for the time being.
