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LME aluminum fell under pressure on Monday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1568.
5 / ton, down 0.
48%
on a daily basis.
The main 2007 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with the highest 13690 yuan / ton and the lowest 13490 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 13605 yuan / ton, down 0.
15% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 115,900 lots, an increase of 13,075 lots per day, and the position was 133,200 lots, a daily decrease of 2,436 lots
.
basis 215 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2007-2008 was 245 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The United States has seen a surge
in cases and hospitalizations after states began to lift lockdown measures.
New local cases in Beijing, China, have been seen
for three consecutive days.
(2) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in May was 2.
98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
1%; The total output from January to May was 14.
81 million tons, an increase of 2.
1%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On June 15, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 13800-13840 yuan / ton, the average price was 13820 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that downstream demand is stable, traders' trading is slightly flat, and the execution of long orders is not good, but inventories continue to decline, and the basis is expected to strengthen
again after the change month.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 105369 tons, an increase of 1803 tons per day; On June 12, LME aluminum stocks were 1548550 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons
per day.
As of the week of June 12, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 248462 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,126 tons, a decline of 12 consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract were 84471 lots, minus 497 lots per day, short positions were 101947 lots, daily minus 2035 lots, net short positions were 17476 lots, daily minus 1538 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
As the situation of the new crown epidemic in the United States is still very serious, and the number of new cases in Beijing has increased, market panic has heated up here; Overseas downstream demand was greatly affected by the epidemic, and aluminum inventories continued to accumulate under strong supply and weak demand; And the opening of China's import window will stimulate overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices will increase
.
However, the strong performance of domestic downstream demand has driven the dematerialization of Shanghai aluminum inventories, and the short-term supply is tight, so that aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, downstream demand is stable, traders' trading is slightly flat, and the performance of long orders is not good, but inventories continue to decline
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2007 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position greatly, focusing on the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.
