Shanghai aluminum range strong volatility The market mostly holds a wait-and-see attitude

Since April this year, electrolytic aluminum inventories have been declining, falling from a maximum of 1.
676 million tons in the year to 63.
5 tons, a decrease of 62.
11%, and low inventory & consumption has supported prices all the way to soar.

The global manufacturing data during the week has a strong boost to market confidence, in addition, the London aluminum market is still hoping for the subsequent economic stimulus policies launched by the United States, and the overall trend of short-term macro is still good
.
In terms of spot market transactions, as prices rebounded and continued to break through new highs in the year, holders were worried about falling prices, shipment enthusiasm increased significantly, and spot premiums declined; Intermediaries are more cautious in entering the market, downstream enterprises are afraid of heights, wait-and-see or buy on demand, there are few hoarders, and the overall market transaction is average
.
The spot premium dropped from 70 to 10
.

Affected by the holiday, the operating rate of aluminum plate strip in October fell slightly by 72.
46, and it is expected to rise steadily in November, and the operating rate is expected to be around 73%.
Compared with this month's stable slight improvement, mainly because there is no impact of the holiday effect similar to October in November, the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises will recover, and secondly, from the current survey situation, the production period of large enterprises is still 1-1.
5 months, and the output is expected to be flat
in November.
According to statistics, the destocking continued, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 629,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,000 tons
.
It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the arrival of goods and marginal changes in demand in each major consumption place
.
SHFE aluminum inventories increased by 861 tonnes to 232577 tonnes weekly, and warehouse receipt inventories increased by 28,267 tonnes to 124409 tonnes
.

Driven by low inventories and macro benefits, aluminum prices continue to climb to new highs, but the market does not fully recognize this high price, and most of them take a wait-and-see attitude
.
The short-term aluminum price has gradually stabilized at 15,000, and the probability of Shanghai aluminum continuing to run at a high level is relatively large in the absence of a large reversal in domestic fundamentals, and the main force focuses on the strong fluctuation in the range of 1.
5-15,800
.