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Recently the supply-side disturbance continues to expand, and the news of power cuts in Guangxi on Monday was not confirmed, but the market bulls were greatly boosted, and the price of Shanghai aluminum once soared to 21550 yuan / ton
.
Subsequently, the non-ferrous metal association spoke out, calling on speculators not to underestimate the government's determination, while denying that supply was too tight, which to some extent cooled the market overheating
.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the key to determining the price of
aluminum.
On the supply side, under the influence of factors such as power rationing and dual control policies on energy consumption, the current national electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been reduced by 2.
395 million tons, and the output has not been clearly reduced by 736,000 tons
.
The resumption of production capacity in the early stage is far away, and more production capacity may be affected
under the expectation of stricter follow-up dual control policies.
On the demand side, the high price of aluminum has affected new orders downstream, and the operating rate of leading processing enterprises has declined
slightly.
Gradually entering the peak season, the performance of the real estate sector is flat, and the recovery of the automotive industry due to chip problems is not expected, which makes the recovery of demand in the peak season have greater uncertainty
.
At present, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles have become the main growth points
of future demand.
From the perspective of inventory, the social treasury is in a state of slight destocking, which to a certain extent reflects that the mismatch between supply and demand still exists, and continues to give aluminum price support
.
In terms of cost, the price of raw materials such as alumina has risen recently, and the cost center has gradually moved up, but the current profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are huge, and the subjective willingness to start construction is not greatly affected by the rise in costs
.
On the macro front, the non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, with Taper expectations weakened in September, which was positive for commodities
.
On the whole, it is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a strong rhythm in the short term, short-term will fluctuate between 21000-21700, short-term operations can be sold high and low absorption, long-term operation is recommended to continue to hold before the order, in case of a pullback can be bargain to open a position
.
