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On Friday, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14210 yuan / ton in the morning, after the opening of the bulls high position reduction, the price fell, pierced the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average downward, and then a small number of bears left the market, the price made up slightly, and the morning closing price was 14190 yuan / ton; After the afternoon open, the bears' confidence was better than in the morning, and they took the initiative to increase their positions, and the market continued to weaken, and finally closed at 14175 yuan / ton
.
In terms of the external market, the opening price of the London aluminum March contract in the morning was 1803 US dollars / ton, the Asian trading session with the weak internal operation, gradually fell back below the daily moving average, the afternoon trading session sideways, to the European trading session, the short position price once fell to 1793 US dollars, but there is still support below, and the inventory continued to fall by 750 tons on Thursday, long positions to repair the decline, as of 18:17 Beijing time plate price was 1801 US dollars / ton, MACD line green line closed shorter, Aluminum continues to fluctuate
around the $1,800 core range.
In the spot market, aluminum fluctuated in the month, and the spot quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market was between 14440-14460 yuan / ton, which was up 10 yuan / ton from the previous day, and the opposite plate premium was 150-160 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou was between
14440-14450 yuan / ton.
Under the high price, the shippers are more active, the middlemen are enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the trading between the two sides is acceptable, but due to the lack of large players to participate, the overall transaction enthusiasm is not as hot as at the beginning of the
week.
Due to the continuous consumption of inventory due to the long wait-and-see period, considering the demand for stocking on the weekend, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods has increased significantly, and the purchase volume has increased
compared with the previous two days.
In the late afternoon, aluminum maintained range fluctuations, the holder's quotation was between 14440-14460 yuan / ton, and the premium of the plate was between 130-150 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, and the downstream performance was calm
.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has fallen back to less than 600,000 tons, and the outbound volume continues to be higher than the same period of previous years, and the short-term fundamentals are supported
.
However, in the medium and long term, under the background of the approaching Spring Festival, the destocking cycle of aluminum ingots is expected to end in 2-3 weeks, when the seasonal accumulation will start again, and next year electrolytic aluminum is planned to put into production capacity is huge, and the production speed is relatively fast, the oversupply of raw materials and prices continue to decline, the profit scale of electrolytic aluminum continues to expand, and short-selling profits are supported
.
Maintain the bearish view on the far month, aluminum prices have limited upside, it is recommended to wait for the opportunity
to sell short after the end of this round of rebound.
