Shanghai aluminum phased shock sorting out the long-short divergence weakened

The annual rate of unseasonally adjusted CPI in the United States in November fell to 7.
1% more than expected, recording the smallest increase since December 2021, the US inflation rate further declined, the main force of Shanghai aluminum within the day stopped falling, showing a shock rebound trend, you can pay attention to the results of the early morning Fed interest rate meeting, if the interest rate hike is expected by 50 basis points, the disk fluctuation will not be too large, it is estimated that it is still or fluctuated around 1.
86-19,000, close to delivery, the month, the main contract spread widened, it is recommended to wait and see, spot manufacturers can also just need to buy
。

At present, the pressure on the supply side of aluminum is not large, the recent market has reported a new production reduction, Guizhou due to power shortage, the local electrolytic aluminum plant is required to reduce production, for the current more than 40 million tons of starting capacity for 380,000 impact degree is relatively small, the current production reduction does not support the reversal of aluminum price trend, the future upper space also needs to pay attention to further changes in the supply side, if there is no further production reduction, we believe that the probability of the bottom range of aluminum prices in the future is greater
.

Entering the demand off-season, even if the favorable policy is boosted, demand has not improved, but still continues to weaken, for the current trend, the current market in the weak reality and macro expectations between repeated games, Guizhou production reduction brought a certain boost, the amount of positions continued to decrease, indicating that the long and short divergence weakened, the appearance of wait-and-see mainly, short-term is expected to aluminum prices phased shock sorting
.