Shanghai aluminum performance is strong in the short term, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen

Macro: China's trade surplus from January to March was 454.
94 billion yuan
.
China's imports from January to March increased by 31.
1% year-on-year in RMB terms and 14.
8%
in RMB terms.
The NDRC said PPI gains have expanded significantly this year, reaching 6.
9 percent in January and 7.
8 percent in February, the highest since October 2008 and as high as 7.
6 percent
in March.
At present, the year-on-year increase in PPI in the first quarter is the highest this year, and the expectation is steadily falling quarter by quarter
.
China's total economic demand is relatively stable, and the possibility of significant expansion is relatively small; Although the market supply and demand relationship of some key industries has improved, the overcapacity situation has not been substantially changed, and steel, nonferrous metals, etc.
are expected to remain generally stable
after experiencing a recovery rise in the early stage.

Spot: Shanghai intraday trading concentrated 13730-13760 yuan / ton, the monthly discount 100-80 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction 13730-13760 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13750-13770 yuan / ton
.
Some traders took the initiative to inquire and receive goods, driving the upward trend of aluminum, the market receiving atmosphere gradually intensified, downstream enterprises followed the buying up rather than buying down, fueling the price mentality of the holders, coupled with the smelter selling at a high price, the circulation of goods decreased, and the overall transaction was warmer
than yesterday.
In the South China market, the spot trading price of Guangdong within the day was concentrated at 13770-13790 yuan / ton, which was about 40 yuan / ton higher than that in East China
.
Due to the upward trend of aluminum and the proximity of the weekend, the downstream procurement action in the first half of the week is limited, so more active procurement for the weekend stocking, and close to delivery, intermediary trading is obviously active, Guangdong market transaction degree can be described as the most active day this month, significantly improved
.

Inventories: LME aluminium stocks were 1774950 tonnes as of April 12, down 13,575 tonnes
from the previous session.
Aluminum alloy inventory was 14,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day
.
As of April 13, the last period of aluminum stocks was 299653 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons
from the previous trading day.
On April 13, SMM counted domestic electrolytic aluminum spot stocks, 255,000 tons in Shanghai, 431,000 tons in Wuxi, 80,000 tons in Hangzhou, 379,000 tons in the South China Sea, 77,000 tons in Gongyi, and a total of 1.
222 million tons in the five places, an increase of 33,000 tons
from last Thursday.

Overall, spot, futures inventories and electrolytic aluminum production increased, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but capacity expectations and production costs supported aluminum prices
.
In the short term, the performance of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the rebound is positive and hit 14000
again.
Watch for stability here
.