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On Monday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose in shock, with the highest 14340 yuan / ton and the lowest 14105 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14245 yuan / ton, up 0.
64% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1657.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
33%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The EU economic rescue plan is at an impasse, and the theme of the meeting is to discuss the size of the EU's budget from 2021 to 2027 and the "recovery fund" package
totaling 750 billion euros.
(2) SMM data, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory 71.
2 socks nu you, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday, Shanghai, Xi and Guangdong stocks are slightly tired
.
Spot analysis: On July 20, spot A00 aluminum reported 14460-14500 yuan / ton, the average price was 14480 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton
daily.
A large household announced a small number of purchase plans, and traders and buyers traded fairly
.
Downstream on-demand purchasing is the mainstay, as prices rose from last Friday, and in the case of some stockpiling last week, intraday buying enthusiasm did not increase
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 114227 tons, a daily decrease of 2823 tons; On July 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1,664,400 tons, a daily decrease of 4,125 tons
.
As of the week of July 17, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 233327 tons, an increase of 19,677 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 81532 lots, minus 2062 lots per day, short positions were 90138 lots, daily minus 751 lots, net short positions were 8606 lots, daily increase of 1311 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.
Rising tensions between China and the United States have triggered renewed market concerns; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has been significantly repaired, which stimulates aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the recent Shanghai aluminum inventory has rebounded significantly, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, China's overall economy is stable and improving, which boosts market confidence to a certain extent; In addition, the performance of domestic downstream demand is still down, and the short-term supply is still in a tight state, which supports aluminum prices, and the back structure continues to expand
.
In terms of spot, a large household announced a small number of procurement plans, traders and buyers and sellers traded fairly, and downstream on-demand procurement was the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position greatly, paying attention to the support of the 20-day moving average, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can be backed by 14,100 yuan / ton light position long, and the stop loss is 14,000 yuan / ton
.
