Shanghai aluminum oscillations after rushing high Closely observe inventory changes

At present, based on plate prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is about 2300 yuan / ton, an increase of about 200 yuan / ton from last week, which is at a historical high
.
After the price of raw alumina showed a wave of rising and then falling in the third quarter, the price tended to stabilize
.
At present, the average price of the national alumina market is 2280 yuan / ton, down about 210 yuan / ton
from the rebound high in July.

At present, the supply pressure of the domestic alumina market is large, the output and imports are at a high level, in this environment, although the price of alumina is at a low level, the space below is limited, but the recent upward path of alumina prices is also more difficult, bearish factors are likely to take a long time to digest
.

Affected by the northern heating season production restriction policy, Henan, Shanxi and other regions of the pre-baked anode market is in a tight state, the current pre-baked anode price is gradually rebounding, the average domestic pre-baked anode price of 3450 yuan / ton, since the low point in June this year has rebounded about 460 yuan / ton, it is expected that there is still room
for rebound in the future.

Electrolytic aluminum social stocks totaled 654,000 tons on Thursday, down 34,000 tons last Thursday, and social stocks declined, mainly because downstream demand was acceptable, and the arrival of inventory was limited
.
Last week's aluminum inventory fell by 05,000 tons to 233,000 tons
.
Overall, the current domestic aluminum inventory is at a low level, so the domestic spot supply and demand is also relatively tight
.

The year-on-year growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production in September hit a new high, verifying the market's expectation that the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter will increase, but the current domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, or even began to decline again, so the increase in supply has not yet had a greater impact
on aluminum prices.
At present, the price of aluminum is volatile, and it is necessary to closely observe the changes in inventory
.