Shanghai aluminum oscillation softened, the upside is limited

In the external market, today's London aluminum narrow range, LME three-month aluminum Beijing time at 15:00 at 1481.
5 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars, or 0.
07%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 12960-13000 yuan / ton, unchanged; Guangdong South Reserve reported 13100-13160 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan; Hua reported 13060-13080 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan
.
Downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, no positive state has been seen, buyers and sellers are slightly deadlocked in the transaction price, and the overall transaction is acceptable
.

Industry News:

1.
Bahrain Aluminum expects global aluminum consumption to decline by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter, of which European and Chinese demand will decrease by 10% year-on-year, consumption in the Middle East and North Africa will fall by 8% year-on-year, and consumption in North America will decline by 6%
year-on-year.
The company expects global aluminum production to increase by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter, of which primary aluminum production in the Middle East and North Africa region will increase by 12% year-on-year, mainly due to the release of production from the sixth production line of Bahrain Aluminum; North American production increased 5% year-on-year, mainly due to the resumption of production at an aluminum plant in Canada; China's production increased by 2% year-on-year, with limited increases mainly due to the reduction in production at high-cost aluminum plants after falling aluminum prices
.
Overall, the global aluminum market was oversupplied by 1.
923 million tons
in the first quarter.

S&P Global Platts' calculations on Friday showed that Rusal's second-largest alumina smelter in Nikolaev, southern Ukraine, was suspended as local customs blocked its entry into bauxite shipments, causing its raw materials to be depleted to critical levels, which could mean a 20%-25%
reduction in RUSAL's alumina self-sufficiency.

Fundamental changes: 1) Alumina prices continue to rise, and the domestic average price is approaching 2200, but the upside is limited; 2) The profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry were repaired to near the break-even line, and the momentum of enterprises to reduce production was weakened; 3) There was a rare decline in inventory in the middle of the season, and the inventory fell slightly due to less arrival and more
shipments.

Multiple factors such as the seasonal warming of demand and the replacement of scrap aluminum consumption have led to a significant destocking, while the storage information has stimulated the strong operation
of the plate.
However, the expectation of aluminum prices should not be overly optimistic, profit repair suppresses the willingness to reduce production, aluminum ingots have a potential import impact under the high value of Shanghai, the negative impact of external demand may gradually appear in the late second quarter, the long-term fundamentals of aluminum have not changed, and the upside of aluminum prices is limited
.
Operationally, it is recommended that bulls protect profits, bears avoid premature left trading, and wait for destocking and market sentiment inflection points before entering
.