Shanghai aluminum oscillation operation short-term or strong

Market focus: (1) US industrial output unexpectedly fell by 1.
3% month-on-month in September, the first negative value
since February.
Manufacturing output unexpectedly fell in September, falling 0.
7% month-on-month, the biggest drop since February
.
September's weaker-than-expected data suggests producers continue to be affected
by supply chain disruptions.
(2) Guangxi issued a notice
on resolutely doing a good job in energy and electricity supply.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 24220-24260 yuan / ton, the average price was 24240 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 121805 tons, an increase of 673 tons per day; LME stocks were 1103275 tonnes, down 8,250 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 longs in the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 94941 lots, minus 10421 lots per day, short positions 107573 lots, minus 10045 lots per day, net short positions 12632 lots, daily increase of 262 lots, long and short reduction, net short increase
.

Market research and judgment: under the background of power shortage, the continuous power shortage has led to a further reduction in industrial production, and China's aluminum production in September has fallen for the fifth consecutive month, superimposed on the strong performance of external aluminum and formed a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the short-term climbing inventory and downstream operating rate have continued to decline, causing the market to worry about weakening consumption, aluminum prices are under pressure above, and short-term aluminum prices or shocks are mainly
strong.
It is necessary to pay attention to the continuity and volume of accumulation and the change
in the pace of consumption.