Shanghai aluminum oscillation low level upper pressure is large

In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1576 US dollars / ton in the morning, the center of gravity of London aluminum trading in the Asian session slowly fell, entering the European trading session Lun aluminum maintained a weak trend, the low touched 1565.
5 US dollars / ton, and then quickly pulled up above the daily moving average, as of 17:30 Lun aluminum 1571 US dollars / ton, Lun aluminum center of gravity continued to decline, the evening data surface is light, it is expected that Lun aluminum around the daily average wide range
.

On the macro front, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates seems to be increasing again, after the European and American stock market bond markets experienced Black Friday, panic spread to Monday, the market also began to discuss whether the liquidity inflection point has arrived, affected by this, including aluminum and other base metals general decline, although supported by consumption, but difficult to resist systemic risks, long and short continue to play at the 12000 mark, but the integer mark is becoming more and more fragile
.

In terms of the industry, the China Nonferrous Metals Association issued a document denying that Chinese companies exported a large number of aluminum to Mexico, customs statistics show that the total amount of domestic aluminum exports to Mexico in the past 15 years is only 291,000 tons; the August automobile production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that the August automobile production and sales were 1.
9905 million and 2.
071 million units, respectively, an increase of 26.
6% and 24.
22%
year-on-year.

In terms of the market, aluminum futures fluctuated
sharply before noon of the month.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 12540-12550 yuan / ton, the premium for the month is 20-30 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 12540-12550 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 12560-12580 yuan / ton
。 The price difference of the next month exceeded 300 yuan / ton, the period aluminum volume declined, the holder stable shipment, the middleman looking for a low-price source, the downstream enterprises cautiously received the goods, after 11 o'clock the aluminum jumped 40 yuan / ton in the month, the holder adjusted the price with the plate, Shanghai quotation was as high as 12570 yuan / ton, Wuxi quotation was raised to 12560 yuan / ton, the period aluminum fluctuated sharply, the price difference of the next month showed no signs of narrowing, the middleman and the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the high price was difficult to have a transaction, the overall transaction supply and demand saw, the spot may slide to the discount state
。 In the late afternoon, the high level of aluminum fluctuated at the high level of the month, and after the high quotation of the holder before the afternoon was not traded, the afternoon quotation fell back again, and the transaction in Wuxi was concentrated at 12540-12550 yuan / ton, and the inquiry and transaction were a small amount
.

Overall, aluminum fundamentals still maintain a long-short intertwined pattern
.
The recent falsification of easing expectations, weak oil prices, a stronger US dollar and still expanding production capacity mean that the long base is weak, but the bears are afraid of the possibility of forcing positions caused by low inventories and peak season expectations
.
In general, aluminum maintains the shock pattern unchanged, but the atmosphere is slightly empty, and the pressure above is greater
.