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Market review, on Thursday, Shanghai aluminum volatility is strong, Shanghai aluminum 1905 contract intraday trading at 13755-13840 yuan / ton, closed at 13810 yuan / ton, up 0.
36%
per day.
Position volume 292526,-4018; basis +200, +55
from the previous day.
In the external market, as of 15:35, the 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1941.
50 / ton, up 0.
34%
on the day.
Industry: London, March 20 - Global primary aluminum production fell to 4.
92 million mt in February, compared with 5.
411 million mt
in January, according to data released by the International Aluminium Association (IAI) on Wednesday.
China's output was forecast to fall to 2.
78 million mt in February, compared with a revised 3.
076 million mt
in January.
In terms of the market, the first trading range of aluminum futures maintained range volatility before noon of the month, and fell back after rushing higher in the second trading stage
.
The first trading range market transaction price is between 14010-14030 yuan / ton, the second trading range Shanghai transaction price is between 14030-14050 yuan / ton, the monthly premium is around 260-280 yuan / ton, the transaction price is about 80 yuan / ton higher than the previous day, Wuxi transaction price is between 14030-14050 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction price is between
14050-14070 yuan / ton.
Intraday premiums continue to expand, but due to the impact of tax cuts, traders have significantly more indirect goods than shippers
.
The willingness to receive goods downstream did not show decline, and the procurement was active, not only in the East China market, but also in the northern market, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has also improved
.
In terms of inventories, LME aluminum stocks were 1,172,100 tonnes on March 20, down 6,275 tonnes from the previous session; As of March 15, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 739,058 tons, down 507 tons
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at a high level
compared to the past five years.
Shanghai aluminum volatility was strong during the day, as the US dollar index fell sharply, boosting base metals, and aluminum prices showed a strong trend
.
In the spot market, the premium continues to expand, but due to the impact of the tax reduction effect, traders have significantly more indirect goods than shippers
.
The willingness to receive goods downstream during the day did not show decline, and the procurement was positive
.
On the technical side, the MACD indicator of the Shanghai aluminum 1905 contract maintained its rise, the moving average combination showed a low rise, and the futures price was short-term or strong, focusing on the resistance
near the previous high.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1905 contract can consider relying on the 13650 yuan / ton pullback to go long
.