Shanghai aluminum opens low and goes low, supply release is expected to limit the space above the price

Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 428,000 in August, significantly lower than the market expectation of 950,000 and less than expected
for two consecutive months.
(2) U.
S.
factory orders in July were 6.
4% m/m, up from 6.
2% in the previous month and 6.
1%
expected.
(3) According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales in China's automotive industry in August are expected to reach 2.
18 million units, up 3.
2% m/m and 11.
3%
y/y.
(4) The United States produced 89,000 tons of primary aluminum in June, with an average daily output of 2,980 tons, down 3%
from the previous month.

Spot analysis: On September 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14520-14560 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14540 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 131754 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 1469 tons; On September 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1545575 tons, a daily decrease of 4,650 tons, a 10-day
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract were 81329 lots, minus 492 lots per day, short positions were 87557 lots, daily minus 457 lots, net short positions were 6228 lots, a daily increase of 35 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: On September 3, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2010 opened low and went
low.
Recently, affected by the production reduction of Alunrote alumina plant, alumina prices have rebounded slightly; Moreover, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, and the import window is initially closed to inhibit the entry of overseas sources; In addition, the downstream aluminum rod inventory still continues to degrade, and the same period of previous years is the increase cycle, so the downstream inventory pressure is also small, which supports the aluminum price
.
However, the US factory orders data in July was good, coupled with the bright US PMI data for August, which boosted the US index to extend its rally; And the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is gradually recovering, the operating rate of producers is rising, and the rapid rise of import supply, the supply release is expected to limit the space
above the aluminum price.
Technically, the Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract broke the lower edge of the shock range, focusing on the support of the 14150 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.