Shanghai aluminum narrow range oscillation short-term bulls are not strong enough

Industry: Rusal reported on Tuesday that aluminum sales totaled 896,000 mt
in the first quarter of 2019.
Total alumina production in the first quarter fell 1.
3% from the previous quarter to 1.
932 million mt
.
Bauxite production in the first quarter increased by 3.
0% from the previous quarter to 3.
831 million tonnes
.
Aluminum production in the first quarter totaled 928,000 tons, down 1.
6%
from the previous quarter.
In the first quarter, aluminum prices came under pressure, negatively affected by the trade war and Sino-US trade tensions, and this trend is expected to continue
in the second quarter.
Rusal said production outside China is expected to increase in the second quarter, helped by the restart of production capacity in the United States and increased aluminum production capacity in the Middle East and Russia
.

Spot analysis: aluminum futures before noon of the month to range volatility, Shanghai transaction price between 14180 ~ 14190 yuan / ton, opposite flat water ~ liter 10 yuan / ton, the market transaction price is basically the same as the previous day, Wuxi transaction price is between 14180 ~ 14190 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction price is between
14200 ~ 14210 yuan / ton.
It was learned that the spot in some northern regions is tight, but the market in East China is still sufficient, the holders are actively shipping, and the active trading status before the holiday between traders has not decreased, but the downstream manufacturers have partially prepared goods in advance in the previous two days, and the intraday purchasing sentiment is lower than the previous day
.

In terms of inventories, LME aluminum stocks were 1,069,075 tons on April 29, an increase of 48,200 tons from the previous session; As of April 26, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 638,030 tons, down 27,037 tons
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average
level compared to the last five years.

The main 1906 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range during the day, and the recent intertwining of Shanghai aluminum long and short continued to show a high consolidation trend
.
In the spot market, spot in some parts of the north is tight, but the supply of goods in the East China regional market is still sufficient, the holders are actively shipping, and the active trading between traders before the holiday has not decreased, but the downstream manufacturers have partially prepared goods in advance in the previous two days, and the purchasing sentiment is lower than the previous day
.
On the technical side, the red column of the Shanghai-aluminum 1906 contract MACD indicator shrank further, indicating that the short-term bulls have insufficient strength and the upside may be limited
.