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As of the close of 3 p.
m.
on Wednesday, the main 2210 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 18300, down 100, or 0.
54%.
The hidden dangers of production cuts caused by the overseas energy crisis did not push aluminum prices higher, and Intran aluminum weakened again, and the center of gravity shifted down to $2,200; Dragged down by it, Shanghai aluminum stopped falling within the day and then lowered again, and the main force is still under pressure below
the 18,500 mark.
In the short term, as the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September climbed to more than 70%, overseas non-ferrous metals were generally under pressure to decline, and the market panic caused by this also affected the domestic market, but from the recent aluminum market fundamentals, the change is still minimal, the price is mainly in a narrow range, and the short-term will still be affected by sentiment, it is recommended to be vigilant against the risk
of aluminum prices falling.
Overseas, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that the non-manufacturing activity index edged up to 56.
9 last month from 56.
7 in July.
This is the second consecutive month of rise after three months of decline, and the report results reinforce the view that the United States is not in recession, leaving the market to maintain expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, the dollar continues to climb, and non-ferrous metals are under pressure
.
The European energy crisis is still uncertain, and the recent new overseas production cuts have some support
for aluminum prices.
Domestically, after the end of the power cut in Sichuan, the local shutdown refinery still needs time to resume production, the current market began to trade Yunnan hydropower shortage crisis, or will bring new production reduction, Yunnan production reduction matters have not expressed a position, domestic sentiment performance slightly worse, but Yunnan's main hydropower stations are lower than the same period, the probability will face a production reduction situation, if Yunnan 20% production reduction domestic next year is still expected to be excessive, but the fourth quarter of this year may face the problem that inventory will fall to extremely low, Therefore, it is expected that the domestic price will still be supported around 18,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to the hydropower supply in Yunnan
.
Downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and demand may remain weak in the short term under the influence of the epidemic in many places, but the arrival of the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyin Ten may expect to improve
.
According to the latest data from LME inventory, LME aluminum increased by 31,325 tons yesterday, an increase of 11%, the largest increase since February this year, to a new high in more than a month, mainly from the Klang warehouse
.
Overall, the pressure on the domestic supply side is not large, and the market has begun to trade the Yunnan hydropower shortage crisis, and there is still some support
below the aluminum price.
