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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1609 contract fluctuated in a narrow range, finishing to 12685 yuan / ton at the end of the day, slightly down 0.
12% from yesterday's closing price, the daily closing price is close to the high point of nearly a year, short-term continuous rise after the need to be vigilant of technical pullback, the lower support to focus on 12500 yuan / ton
.
The term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1608 and 1609 contracts widened to 175 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, Asian Lun aluminum around 1680 US dollars / ton narrow fluctuations, of which 3 months Lun aluminum flat at 1682 US dollars / ton, has broken through the previous high, hit a new high since July 20 last year, performance compared with other base metals stagnation resistance, in the past six weeks Lun aluminum has achieved five weeks of rise, short-term still need to be vigilant about technical pullback demand, upper rebound resistance focus on 1700 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index is weak to the downside, now trading around 96, and the strength of the dollar index this week has not dampened the base metals higher, but has achieved the same rise, as the market hopes for economic stimulus measures in China
.
China's GDP in the second quarter of China grew by 6.
7% year-on-year today, slightly stronger than expected, while new RMB loans in June amounted to 1.
38 trillion yuan, higher than expected, considering the significant decline in the growth rate of domestic urban fixed asset investment from January to June, which means that domestic monetary policy is still expected
to be accommodative.
In terms of market: on July 15, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 12910-12930 yuan / ton, and the flat water to the premium of the month was 10 yuan / ton
.
On the last trading day, the price difference of the following month further narrowed to around 70 yuan / ton, Shanghai Wuxi holders actively shipped, Shanghai middlemen and downstream enterprises wait-and-see sentiment was stronger, waiting for the change of month, some Wuxi middlemen in view of the small price difference, appropriate replenishment, downstream on-demand procurement, transaction reproduction regional differences
.
After the change of month, spot trading may improve significantly next week
.
In terms of industry, the aluminum inventory of Japan's three major ports fell to 316,800 tons at the end of June, a decrease of 20,400 tons or 6.
05% month-on-month, and achieved a 12-month decrease in the past 13 months (a cumulative decrease of 185,400 tons or 36.
92%), and also fell by 183,100 tons or 36.
6% year-on-year, and hit a new low since September 2014, as Japan reduced aluminum imports
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1609 contract oscillated to 12685 yuan / ton, the performance continued to stagnation and decline compared with other base metals, and weaker than Lun aluminum
.
Due to market concerns about domestic aluminum companies increasing production, increase supply pressure
.
Caution is still recommended
.
