Shanghai aluminum maintained a narrow range of volatility Pay close attention to the inflection point of inventory

In terms of news, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that China's automobile production and sales in 2021 will be 26.
082 million and 26.
275 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.
4% and 3.
8%; The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.
545 million units and 3.
521 million units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.
6 times, of which the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles showed rapid growth
.
Overseas, the European energy crisis continues to ferment, and due to the great uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply, production cuts may expand.

In terms of the market, East China's spot discount narrowed, high aluminum prices inhibited some downstream procurement efforts, the consumption area represented by Gongyi has been suspended for holidays, and the local discount quickly retreated, and the discount for the month expanded to around
150 yuan / ton.
Consumption in East China also had an impact, under the high aluminum price, local downstream procurement was insufficient to keep up, and the actual transaction was concentrated in the month of flat water to 10 yuan / ton
.

In terms of fundamentals, the recent start of electrolytic aluminum supply capacity continued to rise, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity may continue to increase
slightly in January.
In terms of cost and profit, the recent decline in alumina is small, electricity prices are relatively stable, aluminum prices are currently at a high level, and the industry maintains profits
.
In terms of demand, downstream inquiries are positive, but with the approach of the holiday, there are certain signs of weakness except for the aluminum plate and foil plate, and the recent decline in aluminum rod processing fees, some small aluminum rod processing enterprises may take a holiday
in advance.

In terms of inventory, the domestic aluminum ingot social library continues to go to storage, and as the downstream holidays are successive, it is necessary to pay close attention to the inflection point of
inventory.
As of Jan.
12, LME stocks stood at 898,500 mt, down 04,300 mt
from the previous session.
As of January 10, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 752,000 tons, down 24,000 tons
from the previous week.
In terms of price, overseas production cuts coupled with domestic destocking have supported aluminum prices, and it is recommended to treat
them with the idea of bargain hunting.