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Trade Service
Last week, Shanghai aluminum maintained volatility above 21,000, closing at 21,430 yuan / ton on Friday, a weekly increase of 1.
28%.
At present, the price support is strong under low inventory, in addition, there is a possibility of light hedging of pre-holiday funds, be alert to the recent long exit action, and continue to pay attention to the progress of
European energy and the global epidemic.
On the macro front, China's loose expectations for stable growth have been further strengthened, and the 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR have been lowered on the same day, but the 5-year reduction is only 5BP, which is less than market expectations, and the domestic current stability expectations are still the mainstay
.
In terms of supply, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 37.
695 million tons, the completed production capacity is 43.
774 million tons, and the operating rate of the national electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 86.
1%.
Production is expected
to increase in January.
During the week, the news of aluminum plant shutdowns triggered by the surge in European electricity prices gradually decreased, and the supply disruption factors subsided
.
On the demand side, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises fell by 1.
6 percentage points to 66.
8%
last week.
Approaching the Spring Festival, profile companies and recycled alloy companies stopped production and holidays last week, superimposed on last week's aluminum prices continued to maintain high volatility, alloy and cable companies pre-holiday demand continued to weaken, operating rate continued to decline
.
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, aluminum downstream processing enterprises are expected to maintain a high level of operation in addition to aluminum strip and aluminum foil enterprises, and the operating rate of other sectors will continue to weaken
.
In terms of inventory, SMM statistics show domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 726,000 tons, weekly accumulation of 02,000 tons, and Nanhai, Hangzhou and Gongyi consumption areas contributed the main accumulation.
Compared with Monday's inventory, it increased by 04,000 tons, and the main reason for Shanghai and Wuxi to go to storage was that the outbound goods were acceptable, and the arrival was reduced
.
Overall, the pace of Shanghai aluminum rushing has slowed down, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trend of weak downstream consumption continues to appear, at the same time, although the domestic social inventory is less than 10,000 tons, it also reflects the weakness
of the demand side to a certain extent.
It is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the safe haven exit of bulls before the Spring Festival in China and the energy shortage in Europe
.
