Shanghai aluminum main shock rises is expected to fluctuate at a short-term high

Market focus: (1) There are still some constituencies in the US election that are counting votes, and Biden is currently only 6 votes away from winning the election
.
(2) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 365,000 in October, compared with an estimated increase of 650,000 and 749,000
in the previous month.
(3) At 3:00 Beijing time on Friday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, and the market expects the Fed to stand still
.
(4) U.
S.
aluminum exports were 6512948 kilograms in September, up from 5815022 kilograms
in August.

Spot analysis: On November 5, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15060-15100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15080 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders were actively shipped, the supply was tightened, and the downstream was afraid of heights, and the transaction activity decreased
slightly.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 92,502 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 2,235 tons; On November 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1450025 tons, down 6,050 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract are 72345 lots, a daily increase of 2968 lots, short positions are 88072 lots, a daily increase of 5375 lots, net short positions are 15727 lots, a daily increase of 2407 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On November 5, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose in 2012
.
Domestic demand performance is acceptable, aluminum companies are gradually rising, and the import window continues to open, stimulating a large inflow of overseas goods, the recent inventory of both cities has declined, aluminum prices are strong
.
However, in the US presidential election, Biden's probability of being elected has increased, but the US presidential election is currently dominated by Biden, and Trump has filed a lawsuit for a recount, and uncertainty has increased to suppress market risk sentiment; As well as the new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, the high profits of aluminum plants have also stimulated the release of idle production capacity, and the pressure on aluminum prices has gradually increased
.
Technically, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum is running in the range of shrinkage and increase positions, and the mainstream short positions increase is large, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.