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On Tuesday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose in shock, with the highest 15960 yuan / ton and the lowest 15735 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 15865 yuan / ton, up 0.
54% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2041 / ton, up 0.
69%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and colleagues estimate that the size of the new stimulus package is expected to reach $1.
5 trillion, up from their previous forecast of $1.
1 trillion
.
They also raised their forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter to 11 percent
.
(2) Mingtai Aluminum said that the company's orders are sufficient, the capacity utilization rate is 100%, and the demand for 5 series and 6 series medium and heavy plates in 2021 is strong, and production has been scheduled to the next two months, and there are continuous new orders
.
Spot analysis: On February 9, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15720-15760 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15740 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
The holiday atmosphere is strong, the number of shippers is reduced, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is weak, and the transaction activity continues to decline
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 103461 tons on Tuesday, flat; On February 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1402625 tons, down 3,900 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 89803 lots, minus 10313 lots per day, short positions were 113781 lots, 10583 lots per day, net short positions were 23978 lots, daily minus 270 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 volatility rose
on February 9.
The US dollar index came under pressure on the US dollar index to the downside due to the release of the January non-farm payrolls data in the United States that fell short of expectations, and the expectations of further stimulus plans in the United States strengthened; The recent decline in new global coronavirus cases is positive for risk sentiment
.
At the end of the year, the operating rate of downstream aluminum enterprises gradually declined, demand turned weak, and inventory maintained growth
.
However, some companies have sufficient orders, the market is optimistic about demand after the year, and the recent spot premium has risen, boosting market confidence
.
Technically, the main 2103 contract daily MACD red column increment of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term
.
