Shanghai aluminum main shock fell slightly, downstream intraday on-demand procurement

Market focus: (1) British Prime Minister Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet on June 18, and the Brexit trade negotiations have entered a critical stage
.
(2) WBMS data, the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 1.
098 million tons from January to April 2020, and 709,000 tons
from January to March.
(3) As of June 18, SMM statistics show that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell by 33,000 tons to 754,000 tons on a weekly basis, and the domestic aluminum rod inventory decreased by 02,500 tons from last week to 71,500 tons
.

Spot analysis: On June 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13950-13990 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13970 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
per day.
Although a large household has a procurement plan, the quotation is lower than the market psychological price, the actual purchase volume is not much, the traders are deadlocked in their own transactions, the holders hold the price and the middleman tends to start at a low level
.
Downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, although the price has fallen, but the enthusiasm for receiving goods has not increased by a few points
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 102716 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1654 tons; On June 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1614975 tons, down 1,575 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 82610 lots, minus 1655 lots per day, short positions were 103588 lots, daily increase of 3794 lots, net short positions were 20978 lots, daily increase of 5449 lots, more short increases, net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On June 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2007 fell slightly
.
The global epidemic situation is difficult to say optimistic, and the conflict between China and India has increased market risk aversion; At the same time, overseas downstream demand has been greatly affected by the epidemic, and aluminum inventories under the weak supply and demand have continued to accumulate; And the opening of China's import window will stimulate overseas imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continued to perform strongly, leading Shanghai aluminum inventories to dematerialize, and the short-term tight supply situation continued, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, the trading performance of traders is deadlocked, with holders holding prices and middlemen tending to start at a low level, and downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased their positions and paid attention to the 10-day moving average support
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2007 contract can be long at 13450 yuan / ton on a pullback, and the stop loss is 13380 yuan / ton
.